12/22/2025
If this is true…friendly reminder we will be closed on Friday and Saturday. Please pick your products up before then. We do not want anyone caught off guard
Wintry/Icy mix?
🤔 🧊 Interest in Friday Dec 26, AFTER CHRISTMAS is growing.
We will be in the same set up on the edge of cold air in New England and the big warm up in the middle of the nation.
🌀 An active storm track will send an impulse of energy our way.
⏰ The first one will be Tuesday.
⏰ 💪 The second on Friday will be STRONGER.
↗️'Over-running' Precipitation relates to air forced to rise up and above cold air at the surface.
💁🏻♂️WARM CLOUDS and COLD GROUND:
🧊 SLEET = Falling Rain can freeze on the way down into ice pellets
🌧️ FREEZING RAIN = Falling Rain reaches the ground as rain THEN freezes into a layer of ice.
📏 The DEPTH of that cold air relates which type will occur.
💻 ECMWF Model has a shallow layer of cold, resulting in a Freezing Rain set up for Central Maryland/Mid Atlantic.
💻 GFS Model has a deeper layer of cold air, starting as snow and then more sleet.
🤔 What to think?
1) I do NOT fully trust the GFS. I've shown it for the Tuesday morning event on probationary period. It is not reliable, but has been persistent.
2) TIMING IS KEY. Here we see this develop mid day and the afternoon on Friday.
OFTEN these events result in arriving EARLIER... so this may shift to a morning event conversation.
IF the timing shifts to near sunrise, then we have a greater chance for ice impact, as opposed to this afternoon set up.
👀 This is something to WATCH FOR and keep in mind.
‼️ The results on Tuesday will determine if the GFS is on to something or still up to its old mistake with phantom weather.
📝 GFS keeps pushing colder set ups with more snow, for both days.
👉I am leaning more for the ECWMF solution now, with the likely arrival earlier in the day. That timing is the wild car for the impact, so stay tuned...
