YellowTunnel, 20110 N Eugene, Buffalo Grove, IL (2026)

09/07/2026

⚡ 800 or 740? CPI and the Fed Decide It This Week

The market is sitting near all-time highs — but the model just turned negative heading into a huge week of catalysts. CPI, PPI, and the Fed decision all land in the next few days. 📊

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down a clean if-then framework and how he's positioning defensively.

🎯 The If-Then Setup:
🔹 If CPI comes in cool and the Fed holds rates steady → 800 is in play
🔹 If inflation runs hot → expect a retest of 740–750 (the 50-day moving average)

The SPX likely faces a choppy, sharp-move week, with a potential range of 740 to 811 in the coming weeks.

⚠️ The Mounting Cross-Currents:
🔹 The 2-year and 10-year yields are both making new highs
🔹 The 30-year remains elevated
🔹 But here's the striking part: VIX is at just 14 — meaning no fear is priced in ahead of the data

That's the detail most traders are overlooking. Cheap volatility heading into a binary catalyst week means moves can happen fast in either direction.

✅ The Bullish Tells:
🔹 Value stocks, the equal-weight S&P, and small caps are all near all-time highs — that's healthy breadth
🔹 Semiconductors rallied Friday — a potentially bullish signal

🎯 This Week's Signal:
✅ An XYZ 77.50/82.50 call spread for October expiration at $3

🛡️ Vlad's Top Advice:
Keep cash elevated and continue to hedge. In the video, he walks through the SPY and QQQ hedges he's already put on.

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions defensively at all-time highs while still finding disciplined upside trades — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

🔗 Watch here:

⚡ The market is near all-time highs — but the model just turned neg...

08/31/2026

🚨 Microsoft Is Back Above $500 — Is This the Trade to Watch?

Microsoft has reclaimed the $500 level for the second time, while software stocks continue to outperform a technology sector that is showing increasing signs of divergence.

In this Trade of the Week, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down the cross-currents shaping the market:

📊 NVIDIA earnings beat expectations, but the rally faded after Jackson Hole.
🏦 The Fed's hawkish tone pushed the 2-year yield sharply higher.
📉 The yield curve is flattening.
💵 The dollar is approaching the critical 100 level.
😴 The VIX is pulling back, suggesting surprisingly low fear despite rising risks.
🧠 Semiconductors are under pressure, with the group trading below its 100-day moving average.
💻 Software is leading, with CRM, Okta, and Microsoft outperforming.

🎯 **This week's signal: Microsoft**

MSFT 500/505 call spread for September expiration.

Risk: $3.50
Potential profit: $1.50

But Vlad isn't ignoring the risk.

MSFT is already overbought, so the strategy is to wait for a pullback and consider only a half-size position.

With September and October historically bringing increased pullback risk, Vlad also discusses raising cash, hedging existing positions, and becoming more selective with new buys.

👉 Watch the full Trade of the Week on YouTube to see how Vlad is positioning defensively while still identifying disciplined upside opportunities: https://youtu.be/NDlvkl71HOo

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad ...

08/27/2026

⚕️ Why This Rally Is Fragile — And the One Sector Still Making Record Highs

The model just turned negative — and the catalysts are stacking up. 📊

You're invited: Trading the Turn: Market Outlook & Trade of the Week with Vlad Karpel, CEO & Founder of YellowTunnel.

⚠️ What's Pressuring the Tape:
🔹 Jackson Hole this week — which typically sets the tone for the Fed narrative through year-end
🔹 Brent crude at $95 and climbing
🔹 The 10-year yield at multi-year highs
🔹 U.S. government intervention in the treasury market — and now lending to Japan to defend the yen

⚕️ But Underneath the Noise, Healthcare Is at All-Time Highs:

Moderna, Merck, Medtronic, and Abbott are all leading the tape. When the broad market weakens while one sector makes new highs, capital isn't leaving — it's rotating.

So how do you position right now?

Watch as Vlad Karpel breaks down current market conditions and walks you through a real, actionable options trade — step by step.

📋 What You'll Learn:
✅ 10-day outlook — why the model turned negative and where 720 comes into play
✅ The Jackson Hole preview — how Fed signals could set the tone through midterms
✅ Trade of the Week — a live walkthrough of an Abbott (ABT) 112/117 call spread
✅ Why healthcare is leading — Moderna, Merck, Medtronic, and ABT all at ATHs
✅ The rate + oil pressure — 10-year at multi-year highs, Brent nearing $100
✅ Q&A

▶️ Watch the full beakdown: https://youtu.be/xlqN-pUIBsM

⚠️ Trading stocks and options involves risk. This webinar is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

The model just turned negative — and the catalysts are stacking up ...

08/26/2026

🧠 The 4 Psychological Pitfalls That Quietly Drain Trading Accounts

Most losing trades don't come from bad analysis. They come from the moment after the analysis — when emotion takes over and the plan goes out the window. 📊

Master Your Mind: Trading Psychology & Avoiding Common Pitfalls breaks down exactly where that happens, and how to build the discipline to prevent it.

📋 Here's What You'll Learn:

🔹 The four psychological pitfalls that quietly drain trading accounts
🔹 The full SPY-to-$800 FOMO case study — how one emotional decision cost a trader $2,500 💸
🔹 The Emotional Cycle diagram — showing exactly where fear and greed lead you astray
🔹 Daily routines that build discipline in just 10–15 minutes a day ⏱️
🔹 Six defensive rules for the heat of the moment, when discipline matters most 🛡️

Why this matters:

You can have a genuinely good system and still lose money if you can't follow it under pressure. Strategy is the easier half of trading. Ex*****on when your money is on the line is the hard half — and it's the part almost no one trains deliberately.

The FOMO case study alone is worth your time. It's a clear, specific breakdown of how a single emotional decision turned into a $2,500 loss — and exactly where the off-ramp was.

🎥 Watch the training here:

Most losing trades aren't caused by bad analysis. They're caused by...

08/24/2026

🏥 The Market Is Cracking — So Why Is Healthcare at Record Highs?

The model just turned negative for the next 10 days — right as we head into Jackson Hole week and the traditionally volatile start of September. And yet healthcare is hitting all-time highs. 📊

Both are true at once. Reconciling them is exactly what this week's video is about.

In this Trade of the Week, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down how to position defensively while still finding asymmetric upside.

⚠️ The Setup:
🔹 Vlad believes a short-term top has been set
🔹 The SPX is likely to trade in a range between 740 and all-time highs
🔹 Potential downside to 720 if support breaks
🔹 Key level to watch: the 50-day moving average at 750

⚡ The Cross-Currents Pressuring Equities:
🔹 The 10-year yield at multi-year highs
🔹 The 30-year making new highs before recovering
🔹 Government intervention in the treasury market
🔹 U.S. lending to Japan to support the yen
🔹 Crude oil approaching $90, with Brent at $95 nearing $100

Add it up, and the fear of renewed inflation and rate hikes is back.

🏥 So Why Is Healthcare Winning?
Healthcare is the clear leader, hitting all-time highs after strong Moderna and Merck announcements. That divergence is the most useful signal in the whole setup: when the broad tape weakens while one sector makes new highs, money isn't leaving the market — it's rotating within it.

🎯 This Week's Signal — Abbott (ABT):
✅ A defined-risk ABT 112/117 call spread for $3
✅ Risking $3 to make $2
✅ A way to ride healthcare's momentum with limited downside 💪

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions defensively while still finding asymmetric upside — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

🔗 Watch here:

The model just turned negative for the next 10 days — heading into ...

08/17/2026

🚨 New Highs… or Bull Trap? The Warning Most Traders Are Missing

The market is grinding higher, with the SPX at 776 and the model still targeting 800 in the next 10 days. But there's something happening beneath the surface that most traders aren't watching: momentum is quietly deteriorating behind the bulls. 📊

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down how to position with discipline during a slow-momentum grind higher.

📊 The 6-Month Setup:

🔹 740 — strong support
🔹 810 — overhead resistance
🔹 760 — first-line short-term support. Hold it, and the door opens to the 790s

⚡ The Catalysts Driving the Tape:

🔹 CPI came in cool (PPI slightly hotter than expected) — but the market still responded positively
🔹 The next major event: Jackson Hole — which typically injects volatility as traders parse Fed signals about a potential September or December rate hike, or no hike at all

✅ The Positive Cross-Currents:

🔹 2-year yields pulled back below the 50-day
🔹 The dollar remains below 100
🔹 Gasoline futures dropped sharply on Friday
⚠️ Though crude oil above $80 warrants caution

🧠 The Advice: Don't chase. Be patient. Wait for pullbacks.

🏦 This Week's Signal — JP Morgan:

JPM just hit all-time highs — alongside IWM (small caps) breaking above 300 for the first time. Major banks and small caps at records simultaneously is a genuine breadth signal.

The trade:
✅ A JPM 360/365 call spread expiring the first week of September
✅ Risking $2.55 to make $2.45
✅ A defined-risk play that adds major-bank exposure alongside existing regional-bank positions 💪

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions with discipline and patience during a slow-momentum grind higher — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

🔔 Subscribe to our Vimeo channel so you never miss a weekly market update.

🔗 Watch here:

The market keeps grinding to new highs — but momentum is quietly de...

08/11/2026

📊 The S&P Broke Out to New Highs — But the "Peace" the Market Priced In Never Showed Up

The market rallied hard last week on news that peace in the Middle East was imminent. The problem? It hasn't materialized — and it now appears it may be further from reality than initially expected. 📊

In this PAID Weekly Update, Keith Harwood (CIO) and Vlad Karpel (CEO & Founder) break down a market with a lot to digest.

📊 What Happened:
🔹 The market responded very bullishly to hopes of imminent Middle East peace
🔹 But that peace has yet to materialize — and after last week's de-escalation, we saw the normal pattern of a lack of resolution and increased tension over the weekend
🔹 Weak employment data on Friday actually helped the market — bad economic news indicated a lower probability of a near-term rate hike
🔹 The broad market (S&P 500) broke out to new highs with a general bullish tone

📋 A Very Active Week:
The team had a busy week — closing out trades from the prior week early on, then initiating five new trades during the week.

The closed trades were a genuine mix of results — some strong winners and some losers. We break down every one of them, wins and losses alike, in the full video. (Honest, unvarnished reporting is the standard here — we don't hide the trades that didn't work.)

🎯 The Week Ahead:
The focus stays on many of the same inputs:
🔹 The situation in the Middle East
🔹 Big tech earnings
🔹 The FOMC's expected path, with inflation data on Wednesday

There's still a lot to digest. The S&P broke out to new highs, and the tone is broadly bullish — but time will tell if the rally extends or the broad-market chop continues.

🎥 Watch the full weekly update here: https://youtu.be/oFPCLGDE5Ro

⚠️ Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P broke out to new highs last week — but the Middle East "pea...

08/10/2026

📈 New All-Time Highs — But the Signal Isn't Coming From Tech. It's Healthcare.

The market just broke out to fresh all-time highs, with the SPX trading four days above the 760 level. But here's what's surprising: the momentum signal this week isn't tech. The model is pointing somewhere unexpected. 📊

In this Trade of the Week, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down how to position at all-time highs — with defined-risk structure and clear support levels.

📊 The Model's Setup:
🔹 The SPX has broken out and is now trading four days above 760
🔹 The next target is 780, with potential to reach 800 in the next 10 days if this week's CPI and PPI inflation data delivers a positive surprise 🚀

🎯 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 760 — short-term support
🔹 747.50 (the 50-day MA) — strong intermediate support
🔹 740 — the line the model doesn't see breaking on a 6-month view

⚠️ The Risks:
Hotter-than-expected inflation or renewed Middle East escalation could trigger a pullback — but Vlad expects any dip to be shallow.

🏥 The Surprise Signal — Healthcare:
Technology and high-beta momentum names are not flashing right now. Instead, the model is pointing to healthcare, with XLV in an uptrend and Thermo Fisher (TMO) showing strength.

Vlad's Trade of the Week:
✅ Agilent Technologies (A) — a defined-risk 140/145 call spread expiring August 26
✅ Risking $3.50 to make $1.50 💪

👀 Vlad reminds viewers to keep an eye on the 2-year and 10-year yields, which remain elevated and could pressure equities if inflation data disappoints.

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions at all-time highs — with defined-risk structure and clear support levels — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

🔔 Subscribe to our Vimeo channel so you never miss a weekly market update.

🔗 Watch here:

The market just broke out to fresh all-time highs — the SPX is four...

08/03/2026

💻 The AI Trade Is Still Alive — And Vlad's Playing It Through Microsoft

With earnings mostly behind us, the big takeaway is clear: the AI trade is still alive. Microsoft and Amazon delivered strong prints that justified their heavy CAPEX. Now the focus shifts to geopolitical risk, Friday's unemployment data, and next week's inflation print. 📊

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down a market fighting to hold its 50-day moving average and walks through a defined-risk Microsoft trade.

📊 The Model's Setup:

🔹 The market is fighting to hold its 50-day moving average at 747
🔹 Near-term: a likely 740–755 range, with potential downside to 720 (the 200-day MA) if bears stay in control
🔹 But the long-term picture is constructive — the 6-month model sees a 740–810 range with a positive bias into year-end
🔹 A real path to 800 on the SPX if oil stays contained, inflation stays subdued, and the Fed sticks to just one more rate hike

⚖️ The Mixed Cross-Currents:

🔻 Rising 10-year and 30-year yields (bearish)
🔺 A dollar below 100 (bullish)
🔺 Stabilizing high-yield credit
🔺 Value stocks and small caps near all-time highs

🎯 This Week's Signal — Microsoft:

The signal focuses on Microsoft, with heavy open interest at 450 for August expiration.

Vlad's Trade of the Week:
✅ A Microsoft 450/455 call spread
✅ Risking $3.30 to make $1.70
✅ Positioned for MSFT to hold above 450 through month-end 💪

⚠️ Expect volatility in August and September, with a potential ramp into midterm elections.

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions for range-bound, headline-driven markets — with defined-risk structure — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

🔔 Subscribe to our Vimeo channel so you never miss a weekly market update.

🔗 Watch here:

Earnings are mostly behind us, and the big question got answered: t...

07/30/2026

🛢️ How to Play Defense Without Going to Cash — The Energy Hedge Replay Is Ready

When the market comes under pressure, most traders reach for cash. Vlad's approach is different: find the hedge that also has upside. He walked through exactly that in this session — and the full recording, including the DVN energy trade, is now available. ▶️

🎯 Inside the Replay, You'll See:

📉 Vlad's market pressure playbook — why the SPX could revisit 710–720
🛢️ A live walkthrough of this week's DVN 44/46 call spread
🌍 How to hedge with energy stocks during Middle East escalation
🏛️ Fed decision analysis — September vs. December rate hike scenarios
🤖 How to use the Stock Forecast Toolbox, Active Trader, and Aggressive Power Trader for daily signals

The through-line: rather than exit risk entirely, position in a sector that benefits from the very catalyst pressuring the broad market. If escalation continues, energy tends to strengthen — and a defined-risk structure caps the cost of being wrong. That's a hedge with upside, not just a defensive move.

🎥 Watch the replay here:

When the market's under pressure, going to cash isn't the only opti...

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